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Season of (Shattered) Dreams
Thursday, June 29, 2006
Chicago Cubs first baseman Derrek Lee had a remarkable season in 2005 when he posted career-highs in batting average (.335), on-base percentage (.418), slugging (.662), hits (199), doubles (50), runs (120), home runs (46), runs batted in (107), total bases (393) and stolen base success rate (.830). Prior to 2005, Lee had been nothing more than a regular 25-30 home run hitter who had some speed on the base paths and could play Gold Glove defense year-in and year-out.

That changed in the first baseman's second season with the Cubs as he emerged as a candidate for the league's Most Valuable Player of the Year award and probably should have won the title despite a dip in his numbers that were caused not because of a drop-off in that of Lee's bat but because of a lack of production the leadoff and number two spot in the batting order by Lee's teammates. Nevertheless, Lee solidified his spot in the Cubs batting order for the foreseeable future as the team's slugger (especially after signing a five-year, $65 million deal during the offseason) who would be counted on to bat third in the lineup pretty much anytime Chicago took the field.

One thing that Lee's MVP-caliber season could not save was another season of pain and disappointment for Cub fans as Chicago fell to fourth in the National League Central division with a record of 79-83.

It was the second straight season that a much-hyped Cub team failed to make the playoffs. Their 2004 campaign ended with much heartache after Chicago blew a one-and-a-half game lead in the Wild Card standings against the Cincinnati Reds and New York Mets, allowing the Houston Astros to leapfrog them straight into the postseason. Part of the problem in 2004 was the organization searching for a way to replace outfielder Kenny Lofton, who lead off for the Cubs for the second half of 2003 and bolted for New York to play with the Yankees after the season ended.

Lofton had hit .327 with an on-base percentage of .381, three homers and 39 runs scored in his time with the Cubs after being acquired in a mid-season trade that brought Lofton and third baseman Aramis Ramirez to Chicago. The trade helped fill key holes for the Cubs and propelled them into the playoffs where they were knocked out in a memorable National League Championship Series against the Florida Marlins that included a Game 6 collapse after spectator Steve Bartman interfered with a routine fly out to left field that caused the Cubs to lose their focus, the game and eventually, the series.

With two seasons of heartbreak behind them since their 2003 postseason collapse, things were looking up for Lee and his Cub teammates during the offseason when it seemed that they had finally found a legitimate leadoff hitter in former Marlin Juan Pierre. Pierre's numbers dropped off somewhat in 2005 but he was still a .300 hitter who had a career on-base percentage of above .350 and that intrigued Cubs general manager Jim Hendry and the rest of the organization, who had sat through two years of trying to use outfielder Corey Patterson in the first spot in the order (Patterson was dealt in the offseason to the Baltimore Orioles for a pair of minor league prospects where he is now hitting .282 with eight homers, 40 runs scored, 32 RBI and 29 stolen bases in 70 games played).

Many fans wondered how good Lee, who played in nearly every one of his team's games since he became a full-time starter with the Marlins in 1998, could be with legitimacy instead of inconsistency at the top of their batting order.

Oh, how far from the truth those hopes would be proven as the season would progress but only after the Northsiders gave their fans a glimpse of what they thought the 2006 Cubs had to offer.

The season opened with promise after a remarkable 16-7 victory on the road over the Cincinnati Reds. After losing the second game of the two-game series, the Cubs returned home where they swept the St. Louis Cardinals at home for the first time since 2001.

The Cubs, 4-1 at the time, would proceed to win four of their next eight games before Lee was injured in a 5-4 win over the Los Angeles Dodgers April 19. The injury would keep the slugger out of the lineup until June 25 when he would return to the lineup in an interleague series with the Twins.

During that time period, the Cubs went 19-40 without their Gold Glove first baseman. Initially, it appeared that starting pitcher Greg Maddux would help carry the team after he went 5-0 with an ERA of 1.35 and 24 strikeouts in the month of May but the 41-year old would go 2-8 over his next 11 starts as his ERA ballooned to a gaudy 4.94, the worst it had been since it was 5.61 in 1987 when he went 6-14 in his first full season in the majors.

The failures of the 2006 Cubs could just as easily be tagged on the players for not performing, the Lee injury, aces Mark Prior and Kerry Wood sitting on the disabled list for extended periods of time or on the "Curse of the Billy Goat." The problem with going with any of those is that they are not the primary reason for the Cubs struggles.

Sure, one could charge that the Cubs are unlucky and their star players were hurt and that is what caused their season to tank. Try telling that to the New York Yankees who have seen starting pitcher Carl Pavano and outfielders Hideki Matsui and Gary Sheffield go on the DL for a lengthy amount of time (Matsui and Pavano are likely out for the season while Sheffield has said that he will try to make a September return to the lineup) or the Oakland Athletics, who have been without starter Rich Harden for most of the year (the Oakland ace has only made six starts this season) while outfielder Milton Bradley, second baseman Mark Ellis, reliever/spot starter Joe Kennedy and designated hitter Frank Thomas have also seen some extensive time on the shelf because of injuries.

Despite those injuries to key players, the Yankees are 44-32 (2nd in the AL East - 3 games behind the Boston Red Sox) as of June 28 while the A's are 41-36 (1st in the AL West). The Cubs are currently 29-49 (5th in the NL Central - 14 games behind St. Louis), so forget the injury talk. Good teams overcome injuries.

The true problem with the Cubs is the toothpick-munching fellow in the dugout wearing the number 12 on his jersey. For those who do not follow the Cubs or baseball much in general, that number belongs to manager Dusty Baker. Baker has been with the organization since 2003 when he left World Series-participant San Francisco to become the Cubs' skipper and lead Chicago into the playoffs in 2003.

How could Baker be tagged as the primary reason for the struggles with the Chicago Cubs? After all, his resume (1125-992 in the regular season as a manager) appears to place him in the league of baseball's best managers.

That belief, however, couldn't be further from the truth. Baker's success in San Francisco can be strongly attributed to that of Giants slugger Barry Bonds, who essentially carried the NL West team on his back (steroid-enhanced or not) the past couple of years (with of course, exceptions being last season when Bonds was injured for most of the season and this year where he has begun to fade, most likely because of age). The 2003 season was not necessarily a bright spot on Baker's resume more than it was a bright spot in the careers of Prior and Wood, who set career-highs in nearly every pitching category and basically carried the Cubbies past the Cardinals and the Houston Astros to claim the NL Central crown.

Since 2003, Baker's club has been the definition of disappointing and, at times, choking. The 2004 choke during the last week of the season and the team's sub-.500 record in 2005 have been huge black marks on the guy who most Chicago fans couldn't seem to get enough of when they would proudly wave their "In Dusty We Trusty" signs during the 2003 season. It seems that since the late-season collapse in the '04 campaign, Baker's Cubs have been in a tailspin that he cannot pull them out of.

Sadly enough, that is what he is paid to do - fix the team's problems when they arise. Managers and coaches in sports are comparable to parents - they are the fathers and the players are their many sons. When a father's son does something wrong, it is Daddy's job to help the kid with what he is doing incorrectly so that the next time a similar situation arises, the kid is able to succeed where he once failed. Baker has been unable to do that.

Take Cub prospect Rich Hill, for example. Hill is a 26-year old starting pitcher who is currently hurling for the organization's AAA-affiliate, the Iowa Cubs. This season, he has posted a record of 5-1 in with an ERA of 1.91 and has struck out 95 batters in only 11 starts with Iowa but with the mother club, Hill has gone winless in four starts to post a record of 0-4 with a horrendous ERA of 9.31. His reputation of being one of the organization's top prospects with a devastating curveball similar to that of Oakland's Barry Zito is rapidly tanking.

Patterson was a primary example of Baker damaging a young player's confidence and ability before he was dealt to the Orioles. The former first-round draft pick by the Cubs in 1998 MLB Draft showed signs of being a five-tool player in the majors with a brilliant mix of contact, power and speed, something that the organization caught onto quickly as Patterson reached the majors two years after being drafted. Baker, recognizing Patterson's speed as an advantage, plugged him in the leadoff spot late in the 2004 season and throughout most of the first half of 2005. It was a move that crippled the outfielder's confidence, resulting in Patterson's batting average to slide from .298 in 2003 to .266 in 2004 and .215 in 2005. He quickly became a strikeout-prone batter, whiffing 168 times in 2004 and 118 times in 2005 (in 200-less at-bats from the previous year), much to the dismay of the Wrigley Field faithful, who loudly booed the outfielder after every strikeout.

The organization tried to help Patterson redevelop his confidence around midseason by sending him down for a brief stint in Iowa in 2005 but when he returned, Baker still refused to yield, plugging his center fielder in the leadoff spot multiple times.

This season, Baker has had trouble with correcting the hitting woes of center fielder Juan Pierre, who was batting .248 as of June 29 with an on-base percentage of .297, nearly 50 points below his career average and his team in general. For the month of May (when they posted a record of 7-22), the Cubs were 25th in batting average (.248); 27th in the majors in runs scored (93); 29th in total bases (351), on-base percentage (.296) and RBI (87) and dead last in home runs (17) and slugging (.359).

Things have not changed much in June as the team was 25th in the majors in on-base percentage (.323), 26th in RBI (98) and 27th in runs scored (102) through June 28.

And those are just the offensive categories.

Cubs pitching has been arguably good in some point this season, allowing batting average of .252 (good for 4th-best in the majors) but they have surrendered 318 walks this season, the second highest total in the league (the Orioles have given 324 free passes in 2006). That has been a key reason for Chicago having the majors' 24th-worst ERA (4.85). Simply put, it is hard to succeed as a pitcher when the bases are getting loaded with opposing batters who should have had to have worked to get there.

Perhaps Baker, who once said that "walks are overrated," does not understand that walks can cripple a team's pitching if they surrender too many. Nevertheless, he has done very little to correct the problem or if he has, it simply isn't working. Not much seems to be working in the North side of Chicago these days.

When that occurs, most organizations fire those responsible for the problem. In this case, it is Baker and his incapable staff of pitching coach Larry Rothschild, hitting coach Gene Clines and first base coach Gary Matthews.

The stay of Dusty Baker in Chicago has been long worn out and damaging to a good portion of the organization. The Cubs need to jettison their manager and bring in someone new to see if he can correct the problem. Perhaps that guy is WGN (who broadcasts Cubs baseball games throughout the season) broadcaster Bob Brenly, who was the skipper of the Arizona Diamondbacks when they won the World Series over the Yankees in 2001. Perhaps that guy is third base coach Chris Spier.

Whoever the new manager ends up being, things certainly couldn't get any worse for the Cubs, who are in a tailspin for as long as Baker is sitting in the dugout, munching on toothpicks while his Chicago squad is losing baseball games.

(Lee Photo Credit - ESPN/Associated Press, Baker Photo Credit - SI, Ramirez Photo Credit - MLB.com)
posted by Blake Fought @ 6/29/2006 05:47:00 PM  
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