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In the End, It Did Not Matter
Saturday, May 06, 2006
Let the talking heads ramble on and on about the "Race for the 8th Spot" every season in the final weeks of the NBA's regular season. It adds excitement to a time when most fans would rather see the season end so that the playoffs can begin and after all, the teams contending for a spot have fans, too.

But in the end, does all of the hype really stand up when the playoffs roll around? Would it have mattered if the Philadelphia 76ers had earned the 8th seed in the Eastern Conference instead of the Milwaukee Bucks? After all, both teams would have entered the playoffs with losing records (Milwaukee finished the season with a 40-42 spot to place ahead of Philadelphia, whose record of 38-44 made them the 9th best team in the Eastern Conference and on the outside looking in) and would be playing last season's Eastern Conference champion, the Detroit Pistons.

Consider this: the top four seeds in the Eastern Conference this season were, in order from one to four - the Detroit Pistons, the Miami Heat, the New Jersey Nets and the Cleveland Cavaliers. The bottom four seeds were, in order from five to eight - the Washington Wizards, the Indiana Pacers, the Chicago Bulls and the Milwaukee Bucks. For those who have not followed the first round of the playoffs or the National Basketball Association in general, all four of the top seeds defeated their respective opponents.

In the past four seasons (including this one), higher seeds have gone 13-3 in the first round against the lower seeds in the Eastern Conference. The numbers are similar in Western Conference as well; where higher seeds are 13-2 (tonight's Lakers-Suns game is the final first round game this postseason. The series is tied 3-3.) over the past four seasons in first round play. That number may be a bit misleading because of the bizarre way the playoffs have been set up since the three-division format was set up after the 2003-2004 season.

Let me explain. The matchup between the Denver Nuggets and the Los Angeles Clippers (yes, people, somehow the Clippers seemed to have found a basketball team, surprisingly) may have been a bit misleading with the Nuggets being the higher seed despite having a worse record (44-38) than the Clips (47-35). Denver earned the 3rd seed in the Western Conference because they were the best team to come out of the Northwest Division. If the playoffs were formatted they way they were before the three-division format was enacted, the Clippers would have been seeding higher and therefore would have been another example of a higher seed knocking off a lower seed.

Which begs the question: does the "Race for the 8th Spot" or even the 5th, 6th and 7th spots really matter and if they do not, what should we do as fans of the NBA? After all, the statistics are pretty clear - lower seeds have next to no shot of moving onto the second round of the playoffs. Does this mean that we should tune out the first round and wait for the semifinals to roll around?

I would argue no. After all, do you go to a movie honestly expecting the villain to emerge victorious as the credits begin to roll? Certainly not. Sure, one or two films a year may end up that way but the protagonist almost always wins in the end. People watch movies for the drama of how the antagonist is defeated - they watch movies because they want to see a struggle. The first round of the playoffs almost always delivers that to NBA fans no matter who moves on.

How could we forget the battle between the Miami Heat and the Chicago Bulls this postseason? The Heat opened up a 2-0 series lead after 111-106 and 115-108 victories over Chicago but lost the next two contests of the series, 109-90 and 93-87, respectfully. In those losses, Miami looked as if they were going to fall apart and face an early exit from the playoffs. Future Hall-of-Fame center Shaquille O'Neal appeared out-of-place and confused. Chicago's 3-point-heavy offense appeared as if they were wearing out the Heat defensively. Head Coach Pat Riley at times appeared to have lost control of his team as forwards Udonis Haslem and James Posey were both slapped with one-game suspensions for on-the-court issues.

But, like the movies almost always end up, Miami emerged victorious. After suffering a scare in the middle of a pivotal Game 5 meeting in Miami where All-Star guard Dwayne Wade left the game for the team's locker room because of an injury before returning to finish the game with 25 points, five rebounds and five assists, the Heat knocked off the Bulls 92-78 later that night and won the series on a 113-96 victory in Game 6.

We knew what the result would be, just not how it would be done. Drama.

Tonight's Lakers-Suns contest represents yet another possible "the stats told ya so" scenario. The Phoenix Suns, the Western Conference's second seed behind the San Antonio Spurs, were down 3-1 this series to the highly popular Laker club after L.A. rolled off three straight wins against the Suns in Games 2, 3 and 4 of the series, 99-93, 99-92 and 99-98, respectfully, after having lost their first matchup with Phoenix, 107-102.

Most fans, experts and players considered the series over. The second round would be a matchup between the Los Angeles Clippers and the Los Angeles Lakers, who both share the Staples Center as their home court. The Lakers had just pulled off of the most amazing wins in the postseason since Derek Fisher scored a game-winning shot with :00.4 seconds left on the clock to sink the San Antonio Spurs in Game 5 of the 2003-2004 playoffs in the Game 4 victory. In that contest, they had come back late in the 4th quarter to force overtime and in the final moments of the overtime period, which was capped off by a miraclous game-winning shot by guard Kobe Bryant.

T-shirt makers were already printing t-shirts for the Clips-Lakers series, calling it the "Hallway Series," as sports fans were looking forward to the first major inner-city sports series since the New York Yankees and the New York Mets battled each other in the 2000 World Series that came to be known as the "Subway Series."

But here we are, with the Suns and Lakers finishing off the first round of the 2005-2006 NBA Playoffs with a Game 7 meeting in Phoenix. The Suns are the second seed and the Lakers are the seventh seed. If the stat books mean anything, the Suns pulling off a third straight win over Los Angeles tonight to win the series should not be a surprise but instead, an expected occurrence.

Higher seed, guaranteed win. It's pretty simple.
posted by Blake Fought @ 5/06/2006 01:03:00 PM  
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